Safe Storage USA hasn’t acquired a self-storage property in over two years. In that time, we’ve sold a few. So why sell assets without replacing them in our portfolio? This is the question that lies at the heart of almost every meeting our team has.
Russell Nersesov, David Khantses, and I discuss market dynamics daily. Quite frankly, it’s been challenging not to stretch our buying criteria, especially given the market’s current state. We frequently remind ourselves that just because everyone else is buying doesn’t mean it’s the right move for Safe Storage USA.
It was easy to understand why big money—from Wall Street to sovereign wealth funds, family offices representing some of the world’s wealthiest individuals, and other well-funded private equity groups—poured into self-storage in the years leading up to COVID. And, of course, the boom from March 2020 to October 2022 further fueled that fire.
During that 18-month period alone, publicly traded self-storage companies saw a 61% increase in value, according to NAREIT (National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts). NAREIT, a prominent lobbying group for commercial real estate based in Washington, D.C., has documented the asset class’s impressive returns. Self-storage wasn’t just a star performer within real estate but was the top-performing asset class across the U.S. through 2022.
Why This Market Is Different
However, this success has created new challenges for groups like Safe Storage USA. The strategy we employed from 2019 to 2021, when we acquired six properties, doesn’t work as effectively in today’s environment.
David and Russell (I hadn’t joined yet) identified undervalued properties that weren’t reaching their potential due to mismanagement, lack of capital improvements, or opportunities to add rentable square footage. By purchasing these assets at favorable prices—often directly from the owners—and using our operational expertise to dramatically increase revenue, we were able to complete the full cycle on four of these projects. Investors saw impressive returns, with internal rates of return (IRRs) of 20% or higher.
We are preparing to go to market with properties five and six soon, and despite potential challenges, even if they sell at a 6.5% capitalization (CAP) rate or higher—which, following the Federal Reserve’s decision on September 18, 2024, seems unlikely—we anticipate similar returns.
The Market Landscape for Buyers
While we’re poised to benefit from sales, the buying side presents a different picture. The influx of capital into the self-storage sector means owners are fielding 10 to 12 calls per week from investors and brokers eager to identify the next big deal. Most owners are selling through brokers, which often works in their favor, and those brokers are inundated with buyers flush with cash, eager to get into the “Self-Storage Boom.”
However, this frenetic buying has made it difficult for deals to pencil out with positive leverage. For instance, if we need to secure bank financing for 70% to 80% of a deal and that loan carries an interest rate of 7% or higher (as it has been until recently), but we’re buying the property at a 6% or 6.5% CAP rate, we’re essentially losing money every year due to the cost of debt.
At Safe Storage USA, we are willing to take on deals like these if we see a clear path to profitability through revenue growth at the facility. However, after underwriting hundreds of deals over the past two years, it became clear that the days of consistently finding deals that worked were behind us. Despite sending out dozens of Letters of Intent (LOIs) at prices that made sense to us, we’ve come up empty-handed. The simple truth: our cost of capital was too high to make those deals viable.
Why the Competitive Landscape Has Shifted
This scenario suggests two possibilities: either other investors have access to cheaper capital, or they have different buying criteria that allow them to see profit potential that we don’t. While it’s possible to secure lower-interest debt through lenders like life insurance companies, they typically only provide financing for very large transactions—think $50 million and up. This isn’t the space in which we typically operate.
After speaking with investors and brokers across the industry, we’ve concluded that many buyers are purchasing at negative leverage, hoping for future value appreciation. But that’s not a game we’re willing to play.
While we don’t mind underwriting a value increase if it’s based on something tangible—like rental rates being 50% below market or a facility with 60% occupancy and no online presence—we won’t project future value growth based on unrealistic assumptions about rent increases for existing tenants.
Historically, self-storage rental rates have increased by around 4% per year. However, during COVID, we saw unprecedented spikes. While it was a boon at the time, we can’t, in good conscience, rely on such steep rent hikes continuing indefinitely.
What’s Next for Safe Storage USA?
The COVID era was a unique period that drove up storage demand as families found themselves forced out of their normal routines, needing extra space to accommodate work and school at home. Many turned to self-storage as a solution. It’s unlikely we’ll see such a surge again.
So, for now, we find ourselves waiting patiently for the right opportunity—sitting in the batter’s box, waiting for the perfect pitch. In business, unlike baseball, one swing can score an unlimited number of runs, but it can also cause enough outs to lose the entire game.
We will continue to maintain our disciplined approach to underwriting deals and be patient until we find those that make sense for Safe Storage USA. And who knows? Our next opportunity might even lie outside of the self-storage sector.
Stay tuned.